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Unlike past debates, tonight’s could be important

Today marks the first of two presidential debates (the second one set for September), and most U.S. adults plan to watch some element of the event — many think the event will be important for the campaigns of both President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump, according to a new poll from The Associated Press-NORC Center for Public Affairs Research.

About 6 in 10 U.S. adults say they are “extremely” or “very” likely to watch the debate live or in clips, or read about or listen to commentary about the performance of the candidates in the news or social media.

The poll suggests tens of millions of Americans are likely to see or hear about at least part of tonight’s debate despite how unusually early it comes in the campaign season. Both Biden and Trump supporters view the debate as a major test for their candidate — or just a spectacle not to miss.

“I think it’s super important,” said Victoria Perdomo, a 44-year-old stay-at-home mom and a Trump supporter in Coral Springs, Florida. “It shows America what you’re going to see for the next four years.”

Nic Greene, a libertarian who is a registered independent, said he doesn’t think debates do much to help voters make decisions, but he’s expecting to be entertained and plans to listen to post-debate analysis on podcasts.

“I think the majority of people have their minds made up with or without these debates,” he said. “It’s a circus.”

About half, 47%, of Americans say the debate is “extremely” or “very” important for the success of Biden’s campaign and about 4 in 10 say it’s highly important for Trump’s campaign. About 3 in 10 Americans say it is at least “very” important for both campaigns.

Most Democrats, 55%, think the upcoming debate is extremely or very important for the success of the Biden campaign.

About half of Republicans, 51%, say the same thing about the importance of the debate for the Trump campaign. Only about one-third of independents say the debate, taking place at a CNN studio in Atlanta, is highly important for either campaign.

Arthur Morris, a 40-year-old operations manager at a major financial firm, is an undecided voter open to Biden, Trump or a third-party option such as independent candidate Robert F. Kennedy, Jr.

He, along with a significant share of Americans, has doubts about the mental capabilities of the aging candidates, and sees Biden’s debate performance as an important test.

“I need Biden to demonstrate to me that he’s cogent enough to be able to hold this office and execute to the level that we need him to,” Morris said.

One voter from Lewiston, Ohio, said Trump needs to show he can be trusted after the Jan. 6, 2021, attack on the U.S. Capitol in which Trump supporters disrupted the certification of his 2020 loss to Biden and Trump’s recent conviction in a hush money scheme.

About 4 in 10 say they are likely to watch or listen to some or all of the debate live, while a similar share say they will watch or listen to clips later. Another 4 in 10, roughly, expect to consume commentary about the debate and candidate performance in the news or on social media. Republicans and Democrats are more likely than independents to be following debate coverage in some capacity.

Biden and Trump are each entering the debate with low favorability ratings. About 6 in 10 U.S. adults say they have a very or somewhat unfavorable view of Biden, and a similar number have a negative view of Trump.

Most Americans, 56%, say they are “very” or “somewhat” dissatisfied with Biden being the Democratic Party’s likely nominee for president, and a similar majority are dissatisfied with Trump as the likely GOP nominee.

About 3 in 10 U.S. adults are dissatisfied with both Trump and Biden as their party’s likely nominees — with independents and Democrats being more likely than Republicans to be dissatisfied with both.

Republicans and Democrats are more likely to have a negative view of the opposing party’s candidate than they are to have a positive view of their own.

About 9 in 10 Republicans have an unfavorable view of Biden, and about 9 in 10 Democrats have a negative view of Trump. By comparison, roughly 7 in 10 Democrats have a favorable view of Biden, and about 7 in 10 Republicans have a positive view of Trump.

This poll from The Associated Press-NORC Center for Public Affairs Research is very telling ahead of tonight’s debate. The eyes of the country — and more accurately, the world — will be tuned on for this event. Hopefully, the muted microphones will contribute to an event that is far less of a dog-and-pony show than the last debate was. And while many Americans may already have their minds made up, tonight’s event may very well shape the minds of voters who remain on the fence.

We know we’ll be watching.

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