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Steve Brownlee
The score was tied, so failing on the play meant that Green Bay would likely -- maybe almost as a guarantee -- take the lead on its ensuing possession.
Commentators, including even those from The Associated Press that usually don't express too many opinions on these kinds of subjects, were questioning it.
But with a little thought and study, I think it was a brilliant move.
Admittedly, Campbell has always had this gunslinger mentality, and he was probably looking for any reason to go for a conversion on every fourth down he encounters.
The Lions blew the fourth-down play when running back Jahmyr Gibbs was tackled in his backfield for a 2-yard loss, thus turning it over to Green Bay at the Lions' 22.
Campbell got bailed out when the Packers' Josh Jacobs dropped a touchdown pass on third down and Trey Smack had his field goal blocked on fourth down.
Detroit took over and marched downfield, actually having to avoid scoring a TD on several late plays in order to run the clock down and kick the winning field goal on the game's final play.
I won't get into all the penalties that Green Bay felt and likely did have go against them -- and I see there was also a questionable one that apparently went against the Lions. That would take a whole other column to speak about.
Campbell explained his fourth-down strategy in that he thought his team, first off, could make the first down with one yard needed to gain, and secondly, even if it didn't, the Lions would get the ball back for a final drive to at least have the ability to force overtime.
Brilliant. So of course I agree.
I liken it to the old, now out of favor, "two for one" strategy in the NBA, where a team tries to score with 30 or 35 seconds left in a quarter, so even if the opponent runs down the 24-second shot clock, the original team gets the last possession before the buzzer.
Back to the NFL. Unless the Packers scored immediately -- like on quarterback Jordan Love's third-down pass to Jacobs in the end zone -- enough time would burn off the clock that Detroit would be set up to run the clock down just about all the way when it got the ball.
The key is that there's no way Green Bay could burn off the remaining four-plus minutes after taking over inside the Lions' 25.
Especially not with the Packers' anemic run game.
So there would almost certainly be at least a minute or two, maybe three minutes, after Green Bay scored.
It was more than that, and unexpectedly, still in a 17-17 tie game.
If the Packers had originally been ahead, and ahead by more than one point, say at 20-17, then a Green Bay TD might've put the dagger through Detroit's heart with a two-score lead.
Or if there had been significantly more time left, then Detroit's ensuing possession probably wouldn't be the last by either team. Or if time had been short, the Packers might've been able to run the clock down, maybe all the way out.
It just has to be understood that Campbell was in the "Goldilocks" zone -- the score, the location on the field, and the time remaining were just right to make this a good strategy.
If any one of those three conditions had been different, it might not have been a prudent play. Or maybe it would've been if a different set of conditions also lined up for Campbell.
There were a couple other things that didn't make his strategy ideal, namely both teams NOT being able to score at will as I expected in the lead-up to this contest.
While Green Bay would've been expected to at least score three points without gaining a yard from the Detroit 22, the Lions could've gotten bogged down when getting the ball back as had happened through much of the game.
The other important thing is that converting the one yard on fourth down should've been a fairly high-percentage play for a team that does this quite a bit.
It didn't pan out, but through circumstances that Packers fans don't like -- things like the penalties -- Detroit somehow still won in regulation.
So let's look at this week's combatants, four teams having the bye -- the 49ers, Giants, Saints and Texans -- and there being no Sunday morning game anywhere in Europe:
Today, 8:15 p.m.
• Carolina at Green Bay -- Getting back on the field in a short week might be the antidote to get the bad taste out of the Packers' mouths. Especially when playing at home, and even more especially, when that home is Lambeau Field on a cool autumn night. Packers, 34-23.
Sunday, 1 p.m.
• Arizona at Dallas -- This looks like a trap game, Dallas coming off a Monday night win against a hated foe, the Eagles. If this was being played in suburban Phoenix, I'd probably take the Cardinals. But it's not. Cowboys, 33-29.
• Atlanta at Tampa Bay -- The Buccaneers showed they're a real team on Sunday with Baker Mayfield back at QB. But the Falcons showed at least as much that day by handing San Fran its first loss of the season. This would seem to be the time of the season when quality teams start stacking wins. And I see Atlanta having that potential. Falcons, 28-23.
• Baltimore at Buffalo -- The Ravens continue to be a shell of themselves without Lamar Jackson at QB. Reports say he'll likely be back for this game, but will he be 100% with an ankle injury and his mobility a key to his "superpowers"? That plus being in Buffalo, I'll take the Bills, 30-28.
• Cleveland at Pittsburgh -- I got lucky a couple weeks ago when I correctly picked the Browns beating Pittsburgh 27-24 when they faced off in Cleveland.
Since then, I've had an epiphany, remembering all the years the Steelers had everyone else's number in the AFC North, even when they weren't necessarily better.
Back to tradition, especially in the Steel City and with grizzled vet Aaron Rodgers at QB. Steelers, 24-19.
• Indianapolis at Jacksonville -- It's hard to fit in a game when you're having a fire sale, which is what the Colts have been doing this week. Jaguars, 33-24.
• Las Vegas at New York Jets -- Two teams with a significant amount of frustration from last weekend, the Raiders being handled by the L.A. Rams and Jets losing to previously winless Miami. I see Vegas as having a higher upside, so give me the Raiders, 22-17.
• Minnesota at Detroit -- I keep hearing rumblings about the weakness of Minnesota's schedule so far, and even applying the "you can only play who's in front of you" axiom, I only see two decent teams the 6-0 Vikings have beaten -- Green Bay and Chicago. The others were Indy, New Orleans, Miami and Tampa without Mayfield.
I certainly don't see a repeat of the Vikes' 9-3 win over Chicago -- it doesn't rain inside Ford Field very often -- so I really can only go off their 39-22 win over the Packers to open the season.
I won't doubt the Lions playing in their cozy home two weeks in a row, so give me the Lions, 31-28.
• Tennessee at Cincinnati -- The Titans went back into a slumber after getting their only win two weeks ago, and I see no reason to wake them while they're on the road. Bengals, 34-29.
Sunday, 4 p.m.
• Los Angeles Chargers at Los Angeles Rams -- Before the season began, this was a popular pick as a Super Bowl preview, especially with the game to be played in L.A. While the Rams have been disappointing against sky-high expectations, the Chargers are an even bigger letdown with their somewhat less lofty outlook. Rams, 34-21.
• Kansas City at Denver -- Everyone got a wakeup call when the Chiefs couldn't muster any offense at Seattle on Sunday night. But that should be a good thing to spur on KC. Chiefs, 27-22.
• New England at Miami -- The Dolphins should feel fat and happy, getting what might be their only win this season vs. the Jets on Sunday. A good time for a trip to Miami Beach. Patriots, 30-17.
Sunday, 8:20 p.m.
• Philadelphia at Washington -- What to make of two of the biggest disappointments in the league? I'm thinking that even at home, Washington should be able to get out of its own play with a minefield of coach's decisions that could go awry. Commanders, 23-19.
Monday, 8:15 p.m.
• Chicago at Seattle -- Wow, what a Monday night matchup! While I certainly like the Bears coming off "two-thirds" of a bye, not having played since last Thursday, what I like more is Seattle's home-field advantage with a Chicago defense that is still somewhat suspect. Seahawks, 26-23.
Last week
7-7, 50 percent. Season -- 65-41, 61 percent.
Journal Sports Editor Steve Brownlee's email address is sbrownlee@miningjournal.net.