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Steve Brownlee
Not just because there were a few wild upsets and some just-as-wild swings from game to game for several teams. No, it's just the nature of the beast this early in the season.
I think it's become especially true in the last decade or two with a large share of teams not wanting to play any of their starters for any time at all in the preseason.
It turns Week 1 into a sort of the old "Week 4" of the exhibitions, which actually doesn't exist anymore with three preseason games for just about everyone.
Week 2 then becomes the old Week 1, and we know how there's always surprises galore for teams coming right out of the gate.
How else can you explain the Chicago Bears going from a 59-37 victory in their opener at Carolina to a 9-3 loss at home to Minnesota this past Sunday?
Sure, quarterback Caleb Williams getting knocked out of the game didn't help, but he played into the fourth quarter.
And can rain -- or the Vikings' defense -- have made a 56-point difference in scoring? Me thinks not.
Teams make some tweaks, or things come up that need tweaking and coaching staffs either aren't aware of them, or don't know how to deal with them in an effective way. Not yet, anyway.
All the injuries haven't helped, especially to QBs like Williams, Washington's Jayden Daniels, the New York Giants' Jaxson Dart, Minnesota's Kyler Murray and Seattle's Sam Darnold.
So I'm amazed I've even gotten two-thirds of my picks right, only going out on a limb once or twice so far.
I think it's some of the upsets and up-and-down play that have been quite dramatic and getting all kinds of attention.
So without further ado, let's look at this week's schedule:
Today, 8:15 p.m.
Atlanta at Green Bay -- The Packers, struggling like the Lions have so far, get their turn at a short week tonight.
One big difference is that Green Bay is at Lambeau Field, which I've always felt is at least double the home-field advantage in a short week with the precious little prep time for the road team being interrupted by travel.
Plus, the Packers are playing a dreg of a team in Atlanta, not powerhouse Buffalo like Detroit did, plus no one is debuting a home stadium for the first time tonight.
Instead, Green Bay is playing its first home game.
All this plus the Falcons not knowing who can play QB at any given time -- I hear it will be Michael Penix Jr. in his first action this season -- makes me take the Packers, 30-19.
Sunday, 1 p.m.
Carolina at Cleveland -- The Browns threw everyone for a loop by beating a supposedly decent Tampa Bay team on Sunday. I don't expect it to last. Panthers, 24-20.
Cincinnati at Pittsburgh -- I already liked Cincy better in this matchup before the season started, and each team's play hasn't convinced me otherwise. Bengals, 35-28.
Houston at Indianapolis -- A pair of 0-2 starts doesn't breed confidence in these teams, so I'll stick with the team considered better to start this year, plus going with the team NOT coming off a Monday night game and shorter week. Texans, 23-20.
Kansas City at Miami -- The second-best scoring offense in the AFC (KC) vs. the second-worst scoring offense in that conference (Miami). 'Nuff said. Chiefs, 30-17.
Los Angeles Chargers at Buffalo -- The 0-2 Chargers need a win in the worst way. But that's because they've played just about the worst of any team in the league. Uphill battle all the way at Buffalo's new stadium. Bills, 35-20.
New York Jets at Detroit -- Though the Lions may make the Jets' offense look better than pedestrian, this Big Apple team still has a knack for pulling defeat out of the jaws of victory -- see the Packers' win Sunday. Lions, 31-29.
New England at Jacksonville -- Observers were really impressed with the Jaguars' play in their opener vs. Cleveland, and disappointed with the Patriots against the Seahawks.
Things reversed Sunday, with New England stomping the Steelers while Jacksonville not doing so much vs. the Broncos.
Not seeing a September hot-weather advantage for the Jaguars -- mid-80s temperatures and OK humidity -- I'll take the Patriots, 29-20.
Seattle at Washington -- Don't remember being particularly impressed with Commanders backup QB Marcus Mariota, but the Seahawks' current QB, Drew Lock, did good mop-up duty in the nationally televised opener vs. New England.
Even better if starter Sam Darnold is ready to return for Seattle. Seahawks, 34-23.
Tennessee at New York Giants -- Two of the worst teams last year, but both were looking up in the preseason with new coaching regimes, including the Titans having Northern Michigan University grad and former Jets head coach Robert Saleh.
Tennessee has really struggled so far, while the Giants took a huge blow having several players knocked out of Monday's game, including Dart for what looks now to be the rest of the season.
I'm going to take a flier on Giants backup QB Jameis Winston, who all the TV talking heads said wasn't prepared to play Monday when Dart was knocked out. However, I'm thinking what Winston wasn't prepared for was the ferocious Rams' pass rush in a desperate comeback effort when they were forced to go to the air.
Now Winston will get all the practice reps this week as the Titans should try to pressure him. But without scoring a lot of points, Tennessee won't be able to get this New York team out of a primarily rushing attack they might now prefer.
Give me the Giants, 20-13.
Sunday, 4 p.m.
Arizona at San Francisco -- The Cardinals surprised the Chargers in Week 1, but now looking at the Southern California squad, it wasn't such a crazy result.
With Arizona getting creamed in Seattle on Sunday, why not go back to the Cards being the little brother the rest of the NFC West picks on this season? 49ers, 27-17.
Minnesota at Tampa Bay -- Murray might be back for this game, and even if he isn't, backup Carson Wentz played admirably, at least in Minnesota's big comeback vs. the Packers.
I haven't heard there was actual offense played in the Vikings-Bears game on Sunday; I'm thinking that for every five minutes on the clock, whichever offense had fewer negative plays in that span was awarded a point. Otherwise they might still be playing in a 0-0 overtime debacle.
But I'll still take the Vikings, 26-21.
Baltimore vs. Dallas, at Rio de Janeiro -- There's no real time zone change, as Rio is actually one hour east of the Eastern Time Zone in the U.S.
Though Baltimore always seems to find a way to underachieve with its vast talent, the same can be said so very often for the Cowboys.
I like the Ravens, 33-29.
Las Vegas at New Orleans -- So maybe the Lions sneaking out their late-OT win over New Orleans in Week 1 wasn't so bad after the Saints upended the Ravens on Sunday.
New Orleans is back home and having played better opponents than the Raiders, give me the Saints, 24-19.
Sunday, 8:20 p.m.
Los Angeles Rams at Denver -- Now THIS could be a Super Bowl preview, especially if the Rams can get all their personnel back and turn into the Monsters of the Midway, though I guess they'd be the Monsters of Hollywood Boulevard -- a real scary thought.
I don't trust the Broncos to be able to pull off a comeback with their sometimes sickly offense, so I'll go against my gut and the mile-high altitude advantage and take the Rams, 22-20.
Monday, 8:15 p.m.
Philadelphia at Chicago -- Normally, the Bears would seem to be the pick, except not only is Williams likely out at QB, but his backup Tyson Bagent -- who? -- might also miss this game while in concussion protocol.
Who does that leave? Jim McMahon? Oh, checking the internet, I'm seeing 38-year-old Case Keenum as a possibility. He last started three seasons, I'm reading on the internet.
I trust this will be the three-point version of Chicago more than the 59-point version if this happens, doubling up on that idea with Philly still having a competent defense and the Bears not. Eagles, 33-27.
Last week
11-5, 69 percent. Season -- 23-9, 72 percent.
Journal Sports Editor Steve Brownlee's email address is sbrownlee@miningjournal.net.