Steve Brownlee

By STEVE BROWNLEE

Journal Sports Editor

Some of the gnashing of teeth with the College Football Playoff, mostly about Notre Dame being left out, got me to thinking about some aspects of this story:

• Several times I’ve heard TV pundits say it’s really hard, almost impossible, to beat a team twice in one season. Actually it’s not — what’s tough is to beat a team THREE times in one season, like what happens when NFL divisional foes meet a third time in the playoffs when one of the teams swept their regular-season series.

• So many people, it has to be younger fans I’m sure, think the conference championship games are some long-standing tradition dating back to the days of leather helmets that would be hard to eliminate.

It couldn’t have been much more than 25 or 30 years ago when these games started in the major conferences, around the time when the top two teams in the country met in one bowl game to determine the national champion for the first time.

“Mid-major” conferences — to use a basketball term — like the Mid-American Conference have had these games longer, since the champion way back when was usually the MAC’s only representative in a bowl game. Now, if you pretty much have a 6-6 record, no matter what league you play in, then you’re in a bowl.

For the current times, as far as I’m concerned, with 12 teams in the playoff and it only looking like that field will continue to expand, the conference title games are a relic for major conferences that should be scrapped.

• Leaving out all teams from the Group of Five — the “mid-majors” — like James Madison and Tulane, might sound good this season, but what about in those other years when a team like Boise State was undefeated and would be considered a worthy opponent for ANY Power Four (Big Ten, SEC, Big 12, ACC) team? For my money, better to include one of them and leave out a three-loss power conference team.

• It’s ridiculous for conference championship games to not penalize a losing team, if there’s also going to be something to gain from winning one. It’s just a matter of invoking the correct degree of the penalty.

• Recency bias — that you look at “what have you done for me lately” — is always one of those bugaboos that is supposed to not be paid attention to in rating teams in sports. But when having to judge teams for a tournament, it’s a factor that makes perfect sense.

One problem the NFL has with its equitable scheduling system, meaning wins and losses solely determine the playoff field, is that, for instance, not all 11-6 teams are on equal footing at playoff time. If one squad got to 11-6 by starting 10-1 and going in a swoon, I sure won’t pick them to beat another 11-6 team that started 6-5 and has been hotter than a pistol lately.

This situation of equitable scheduling doesn’t exist in college football, otherwise James Madison’s 12-1 record would make them a contender for the No. 2 seed with Ohio State’s 12-1 record and Georgia’s 12-1 mark.

No one thinks James Madison’s schedule is anything like any Big 10 of SEC schedule.

You can still use all the other metrics like strength of schedule and margins of victory if you want, but if it’s close, I’ll take the 12 best teams RIGHT NOW.

Under this idea, I’d have left out Alabama, which has been on a real skid lately, in favor of Miami and Notre Dame, even as much as I detest both the Hurricanes and Fighting Irish. And I do.

So now let’s take a look at the NFL this week, now with everybody playing every week for the rest of the regular season:

Today, 8:15 p.m.

Atlanta at Tampa Bay — With the Buccaneers locked in a duel with Carolina for the NFC South lead, I don’t think Tampa will overlook even a struggling opponent, especially one from their division. Buccaneers, 31-20.

Sunday, 1 p.m.

Arizona at Houston — The Texans are in a three-team race — really now it’s a two-team battle with Indy fading fast — in the AFC South. Can’t see Houston overlooking this game, either. Texans, 19-6.

Baltimore at Cincinnati — With the Bengals just about mathematically eliminated from the playoffs last week, I’ll look for a letdown for at least this week from them. Ravens, 27-23.

Buffalo at New England — The big Achilles heel no one seems to talk about is the Bills’ defense, specifically its rushing defense. I think New England head man Mike Vrable won’t overlook it.

I see, though, that the Patriots also have a really bad rushing offense. However, it ought to perk up against the leaky Buffalo run defense to create some balance in the Pats’ overall attack.

Plus, New England is coming off a late-season bye. Patriots, 34-30.

Cleveland at Chicago — Shedeur Sanders having some success at quarterback didn’t seem to help the Browns last week in a loss to the last team in the league earning its second win, Tennessee. Gimme the Bears, 23-16.

Los Angeles Chargers at Kansas City — Just looking at these teams’ recent play, the Chargers should be a definitive favorite. But with them being division foes and KC at home with some pride on the line, if not the playoffs anymore, give me the Chiefs, 26-24.

Las Vegas at Philadelphia — I said last week Philly was one of those teams I’d only pick to win if they played another team in a similar freefall, or save that, the Raiders. Well, here are the Raiders. Eagles, 27-19.

New York Jets at Jacksonville — These are two teams I have a hard time trusting as they seem to both win and lose games they’re not supposed to. Just going with the higher quality team, I’ll take the Jaguars, 30-21.

Washington at New York Giants — Geez, two teams in the fight for the No. 1 draft pick next spring. Seems like the Commanders are the most recent one of this pair to really hit a swoon, so I’ll take the Giants, 23-19.

Sunday, 4 p.m.

Carolina at New Orleans — With the Saints winning last week, I’ll invoke the “reverse momentum” rule — the worse you did before, the harder you’ll work to change things and improve. New Orleans won, so they’re fat and happy. Give me the Panthers, 24-20.

Detroit at Los Angeles Rams — I can see both head coach Sean McVay and QB Matthew Stafford say how they’re tired of losing to the Lions over the past two or three seasons. Especially with the No. 1 seed in the NFC on the line. Rams, 33-28.

Green Bay at Denver — Let’s see how the Packers do away from home, especially when it’s a mile high. Broncos, 20-14.

Indianapolis at Seattle — Indy has gotten desperate by calling 44-year-old Hall of Fame semifinalist Philip Rivers out of retirement to ride herd on these Colts. Oops, since they’re facing Seattle’s ferocious defense, Seahawks, 26-10.

Tennessee at San Francisco — The Titans are coming off their second win of the season, which should tide them over until the preseason next August. And San Fran also had a late-season bye last week. 49ers, 29-19.

Sunday, 8:20 p.m.

Minnesota at Dallas — Especially against a struggling team, Dallas is much better at home. Cowboys, 30-20.

Monday, 8:15 p.m.

Miami at Pittsburgh — Incredible to think with the ways things looked early in the season for these two teams, they will now both be at .500 if Miami wins. Nah, can’t see it. Steelers, 27-23.

Last week — 7-7, 50 percent. Season — 120-86, 58 percent.

Journal Sports Editor Steve Brownlee’s email address is sbrownlee@miningjournal.net.