Steve Brownlee

I’ve been kicking around end-of-game situations and when NFL teams should go for a 1-point extra-point kick vs. a 2-point conversion run or pass.

First off, though it might not be exact, I go under the assumption that 1-point kicks are converted 100% of the time — not quite true, especially since the kick has become the equivalent of a 35-yard “field goal” attempt — and 2-pointers are converted 50% of the time, which from what I see is pretty close league-wide.

I really got thinking about it again when Buffalo defeated Baltimore 41-40 Sunday night on national TV.

Looking at it from several perspectives, I’ve decided this — the main consideration of the 1-point vs. 2-point conversion is the difference between whether it’s a LATE-game situation vs. an END-of-game situation.

And this only applies to NFL teams that have pretty competent quarterbacks and offenses that can move downfield with some confidence in a matter of seconds on the clock, rather than minutes.

If it’s the END of a game, you’ll probably have to take every point you can get, because there’s literally no time left to score any more.

We’re talking 8 or 10 seconds left with any number of timeouts, or maybe 20 or 25 seconds to go and no timeouts.

At that point, you’re maybe sneaking in one or two plays before you have to put up a Hail Mary. While those pay off occasionally, that means once in every 25 or 50 times, if you’re lucky.

On Sunday night, that wasn’t the situation. Instead, it was a LATE-in-game situation. When Buffalo scored its last TD to make it 40-38, there was 1:58 left and the Bills had all three timeouts left.

Buffalo went for the 2-point conversion and missed it. Uh oh, you just lost!

Well, maybe not. Buffalo could still kick off, then let Baltimore run three plays in a conservative fashion while trying to protect its tiny lead.

Most important is that the Ravens went into the usual offensive cocoon, attempting three uninspiring runs, the most important consideration keeping the clock running by not throwing an incomplete pass or running out of bounds. That did force the Bills to call all three of their timeouts before punting, even without making a single first down.

But because of the time left, it played right into Buffalo’s hands. Hardly any time ran off the clock — it was stopped with a timeout after each of the three Ravens’ runs — and Josh Allen is among those top-of-the-league QBs who can move his guys downfield in only about 20 or 25 seconds coming off the clock.

And that’s exactly what they did. In fact, they almost scored TOO quickly; lucky for them a defender tripped up their pass catcher inside the 10-yard line when there was what, more than 30 seconds left.

So what does this all mean for my strategy?

If you’re at the END of the game, go for two points to take the lead, or obviously, tie the game.

But if it’s LATE in the game, almost every situation calls for kicking for one point! And yes, that includes when you’re trailing by two points at the moment you get in the end zone, like Buffalo did.

How could that be?

Well, if you’ve got enough time and timeouts to force a punt even after three inbounds running plays, and that leaves you with a minute or so, you can push downfield and not just get to overtime, but win the game like Buffalo did.

It’s part of the strategy I’ve promoted in the past — if you score with two minutes left to pull within one point, say 21-20, don’t go for the two points to take the lead.

If you don’t make it, you’re in a bad situation still down one point, hoping you’ll get the ball back for a long drive downfield.

If you do make it and take a 22-21 lead, your opponent has all the motivation in the world — i.e., they have absolutely nothing to lose — to push the ball downfield. After the kickoff, they’ll take over at their own 25- or 30-yard line and need to get the ball to the same spot at the other end of the field to set up for a 45- to 55-yard field goal, certainly makeable in this day and age.

You don’t think a team can move the ball 50 or 60 yards in 50 seconds when you’re playing nothing but prevent defense? Think again.

Now if you kick the extra point instead to tie the score 21-21, you’re back to a more normal game situation. Again, your opponent takes over at its own 25 or 30 after the kickoff, but won’t be nearly as aggressive.

Why? Suddenly, they’re in a predicament where they DO have something to lose — the opportunity to play in OT. If they fumble the ball or throw an interception at the start of the possession, you probably take over in field goal territory, or maybe you just have to move the ball five, 10 or 15 yards to set up the game-winning kick.

What will that do to even an accomplished QB? Play more conservatively to make sure to get to OT. Which is a heckuva lot better than losing in regulation.

Now, all of this goes out the window if you don’t have an accomplished QB, or you’re facing a lockdown defense. There seems to be a lot more accomplished QBs than lockdown defenses in the NFL nowadays, don’t you think?

So none of this applies to college teams except maybe those in national championship contention, let alone any Division II or high school teams. Can any of these amateurs move the ball just because they decide to? Sorry, but not quite.

So class dismissed today. I hope I taught you something, or barring that, gave you lots of fodder to hone your swearing skills when talking about this newspaper columnist.

Now onto the picks:

Today, 8:15 p.m.

Washington at Green Bay — Prime time again for the Packers, and they deserve it after the number they did on the Lions on Sunday.

Did you get the license plate on that Mack truck — piloted by their new driver, Micah Parsons — when it plowed through the Detroit team?

So I think it was a classic case of Green Bay being more emotionally ready for the opener than the Lions, but considering how dominant the Pack was, I don’t see how Detroit could’ve ever hoped to be any more than on par with the Pack, even if Dan Campbell had come up with something to emotionally rally his troops.

Now Washington is the team that actually got further than either the Lions or Packers in the NFC playoffs last season, so in some ways they look like the favorite in this game. That’s on paper only, as far as I’m concerned.

It would be quite disappointing if Green Bay laid an egg after the way they rallied Sunday, but being on the short week and playing at home in front of a national audience — if you subscribe to Prime Video — should be a benefit. Packers, 30-21.

Sunday, 1 p.m.

Cleveland at Baltimore — Both teams lost on Sunday, but in way different fashions. The Browns found their usual way of snatching defeat from the jaws of victory, limiting the high-powered Cincinnati offense to something like 7 yards in the second half but still finding a way to bumble away the win.

Baltimore, as mentioned earlier, got involved in a late shootout at Buffalo and lost despite scoring 40 points.

I see the Ravens as “angry birds” while Cleveland should just feel resigned to its fate, plus it being back in Baltimore should make this Ravens, 27-17.

Jacksonville at Cincinnati — The Bengals played poorly enough to lose to Cleveland, but somehow pulled out a 17-16 win. Me thinks Cincy will actually reach double digits in second-half offense this time — heck it should be well into triple digits — and I don’t remember the Jaguars as having a stifling defense to stop that. Bengals, 31-24.

New York Giants at Dallas — This is the week Giants QB Russell Wilson will look like he’s drinking from the fountain of youth. Emphasis on “looks like” as while the Cowboys improved their run defense by getting Kenny Clark from Green Bay in the Micah Parsons trade, their pass “D” took a hit it couldn’t afford. Giants, 28-24.

Chicago at Detroit — Can ex-Lions offensive coordinator Ben Johnson pull a fast one on his old team? He might if he had the pieces working like a well-oiled machine in just his second week as head coach. I don’t think it will come together this quickly. Lions, 33-23.

New England at Miami — This is one of those trap games because of weird weather, basically the opposite of playing in Green Bay or Buffalo in December. This is south Florida in mid-September, weather forecast not-so-terrible 83 degrees but with 75% humidity.

How sticky is it? I see the forecast for low temperatures there for the next seven days is between 76 and 79 degrees. You know how it gets here when we have those rare midsummer nights that don’t get under 70 degrees, when you jump in a lake in the misguided effort to dry off. Multiply that by about 10 in Miami with a northern team coming to town. Dolphins, 23-16.

San Francisco at New Orleans — It looks bad for San Francisco with tight end George Kittle and wide receiver Brandon Aiyuk out and QB Brock Purdy to be questionable right up until game time. Kind of makes ’em look like the Saints. So in case it’s not that bad, I’ll take the 49ers, 24-20.

Buffalo at New York Jets — The true trap game. Rivals playing an early-season game at the underdog’s home field after an emotional win by Buffalo in the season opener on national TV. I can see the upset brewing, but I can’t bring myself to pull the trigger. Bills, 26-22.

Seattle at Pittsburgh — The Steelers have three defensive players out with MCL sprains, and I understand Seattle can generate pressure on opposing QBs, which I’m sure will affect 41-year-old Aaron Rodgers of Pittsburgh. Need to take a few fliers this early in the season, so give me the Seahawks, 23-19.

Los Angeles Rams at Tennessee — I heard that Titans QB Cam Ward didn’t get a whole lot of support Sunday in a loss at Denver, making him run around like a chicken with its head cut off, then his receivers bumbling catches when he did get them the ball.

Don’t see much of a different prognosis now vs. this L.A. team’s solid defense. Rams, 23-17.

Sunday, 4 p.m.

Carolina at Arizona — Two downtrodden teams that were looking up at the end of last season. But only Arizona got a win in Week 1, 20-13 over the even more lowly Saints.

I have to go with the experts on this one — it’s just too hard to get my own handle on these type of nondescript teams — so give me the Cardinals, 23-16.

Denver at Indianapolis — The Colts were a surprise while the “smart guys” knew Denver would be good, so two 1-0 teams are colliding.

Indy took advantage of a weak defense to blitz the Dolphins 33-8. I see Denver has one of the best defenses around, so expect new Colts QB Daniel Jones to come back down to earth, enough that I’ll take the Broncos, 20-13.

Philadelphia at Kansas City — The Super Bowl rematch — in Week 2? And it’s back at the field of the losing team, KC. Makes the Chiefs an easy pick, eh?

But I see the Eagles as not being very happy just sneaking by the Cowboys last Thursday, and I see their bowling ball of a defensive tackle Jalen Carter won’t have to sit this game out for his spitting episode. A still angry bunch of Eagles, 30-28.

Sunday, 8:20 p.m.

Atlanta at Minnesota — In this kind of early-season matchup, I like the home team. That team is the Vikings, 32-29.

Monday, 7 p.m.

Tampa Bay at Houston — I don’t even know if these are still the two best teams, but they definitely come from the two worst divisions in the league. So call them pretenders for the Super Bowl.

Last week, the Texans didn’t get a TD but almost won. Also last week, the Bucs were outgained by almost a hundred yards with no turnovers by either team in their comeback win over Atlanta. Tampa seemed to do more with less, so I’ll take the Buccaneers, 21-18.

Monday, 10 p.m.

Los Angeles Chargers at Las Vegas — Two games for the price of one Monday night! But the Chargers to me are the only even dark-horse Super Bowl contender in this group of four teams. If the Raiders had lost last week, I’d see the “reverse momentum” swinging in their favor. But they pulled out a 20-13 win at New England, so give me the Chargers, 28-26.

Last week — 9-7, 56 percent.

Journal Sports Editor Steve Brownlee’s email address is sbrownlee@miningjournal.net.