LOUISVILLE, Ky. (AP) — The Kentucky Derby is tough to win, with a huge field of stampeding horses and 150,000 screaming fans in the stands. Toss in a rainy forecast that could turn the Churchill Downs dirt strip into something resembling peanut butter and it gets trickier.

A field of 19 3-year-olds is set to run 1 1/4 miles for a $3.1 million prize and the garland of red roses this evening, an expected post time of 6:57 p.m. EDT for its 151st running. Mucking things up is a forecast of 65 degrees with a 90% chance of rain.

The soggy weather isn’t just a bummer for those wanting the fairest of track conditions. The Derby is also a big party and fashion show, and rain means pulling out ponchos — no umbrellas allowed — to protect the huge hats and floral dresses.

Thirteen of the Derby contenders — including early 3-1 favorite Journalism — have never raced on a wet track. Clods of flying mud hitting their faces could be a turnoff.

“I may go through three pairs of goggles,” said Brian Hernandez Jr., who will be aboard Burnham Square.

Six longshots have experience in the muck, with four winning. Coal Battle is 2 for 2, while Japan-based Luxor Cafe is 3 for 4. The others are Neoequos and American Promise, trained by 89-year-old D. Wayne Lukas.

The last Derby run on a sloppy track was in 2019, when Country House won via a disqualification that had nothing to do with the weather. The last muddy track was in 1989, when Sunday Silence won.

Trainer Bob Baffert goes for a record-setting seventh victory in his return from a three-year suspension. He’ll saddle Citizen Bull, last year’s 2-year-old champion. The colt breaks from the dreaded No. 1 post, leaving him little choice but to get to the front before the rest of the field comes over, potentially cutting him off.

“We’re going to tell him to get out of there like he just robbed a bank,” Baffert said.

No horse has won from the No. 1 post since Ferdinand in 1986.

Baffert’s other horse, Rodriguez, was scratched Thursday with a bruised foot, moving Baeza into the field. Trainer Todd Pletcher’s only entry, Grande, was scratched Friday for the same reason.

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AP horse racing: https://apnews.com/hub/horse-racing