On the evening of June 12, Israel launched a series of major strikes against Iran. Not surprisingly, Netanyahu declared success, the Iranian officials swore revenge and leaders across the region braced for unrest. Of course, Iran will be highly motivated to respond, but its ability to do so meaningfully and soon is highly unlikely. So far, the Trump administration has distanced itself from these strikes since his dream of a diplomatic resolution which ends Iranian nuclear enrichment appeared dead.

Even if more Iranian missiles and drones manage to penetrate Israeli defences this time, they probably would not do much damage or kill many people, especially compared with what the Israeli strikes are likely to do to Iran. The world has already watched how Israel retaliated against Hamas in Gaza.

What we know with relative certainty is that we cannot accurately predict what Iran will do, but it is certain that it will try to sprint to a nuclear breakout, leaving Trump with the dilemma of whether he will need to act militarily to prevent it.

Keep in mind that Netanyahu has long promised Israelis that he won’t let Iran develop a nuclear weapon. And I think he sensed that Israel might never have a better opportunity to strike Iranian nuclear facilities even if that complicates matters further.

Perhaps the “safest” conclusion for now is that the conflict is unlikely to be over even if the Iranian military quickly backs down. Israel should expect an ongoing series of asymmetric attacks, such as cyber operations and terrorist attacks against its embassies, travelers and businesses.

If we change our minds and become involved, Iran will not absorb American strikes without retaliating, since it possesses an arsenal of thousands of close-range ballistic missiles and drones that it could launch at American bases in the region, which happens to be almost everywhere.

Israel is not yet done, and its strikes may only become more devastating in the days ahead. The Israeli military has completely eviscerated Iran’s air defences, so it could attack ever more central government structures and regime officials. Israel could also take out parts of the Iranian oil and gas sector, which are essential to the country’s economy. Of course, it is reasonable to be sceptical that Iran will accept a deal at the barrel of a gun.

The real danger, however, is that Israel has opened a Pandora’s box. The worst Iranian response might also be the most likely, is a decision to withdraw from its arms control commitments and build nuclear weapons in earnest. Containing those furies over the long term is likely to be the real challenge for both Israel and the United States. If the two parties fail, the Israeli gamble could ensure a nuclear-armed Iran rather than preventing one. What is most certain is that Iran cannot mount a ground attack against Israel which would most certainly be suicidal.