To the Journal editor:

Recent modeling data from Johns Hopkins regarding the COVID-19 pandemic indicates that at least 69% of the Upper Peninsula population would need to be infected in order to provide herd immunity.

The first wave of the COVID-19 outbreak has barely started here as we have taken appropriate early steps to prevent its spread. We have approximately 309,000 people in the U.P. About 215,000 would have to become infected to achieve herd immunity.

With a 1% mortality rate, 2,150 people would die from the infection. If the mortality rate is 3%, then 6450 people would die. The current mortality rate in Michigan is 10%, which would correlate to 21,500 people dying in the U.P. alone.

Without adequate testing, the true infection and mortality rate is unknown. The best way to achieve herd immunity is through vaccination, something that will likely not be available for some time.

The goal should be to test, test, test and then quarantine those who are positive and their close contacts, not attempt herd immunity through rampant viral spread leading to untold illness/ death.

Testing supplies have been in short supply here. It is dangerous to let down our guard now and think we can just “go back to normal.”

This is an equal-opportunity virus, no one is safe. This is not “just the flu.” This is not “just a hoax.” The coronavirus has resulted in many unusual and serious complications, very unlike the typical influenza viral infections and it is highly contagious.

This pandemic, and its subsequent carnage, did not need to happen had quarantining, testing and tracing of contacts been initiated when the current administration was first informed of this virus months ago.

The Pandemic Response Team was unwisely disbanded a few years ago by Trump and supplies were not stockpiled. Public health departments have been underfunded. This is all unacceptable.

Now we are forced to be human guinea pigs in a vast unpredictable experiment that many will not survive or may survive with long-term complications. We should not have to pay with our lives and health for this failed administration’s response. Remember this in the fall election.

Sincerely,