Steve Nystrom, Journal guest columnist

While attending the U.S. Army’s Command and General Staff College in 2013, I gave an unclassified presentation to several foreign military officers in our Strategic Cooperation course on nuclear deterrence and the possibility of Japan acquiring nuclear weapons. At first, many attendees were shocked because Japan had two cities destroyed by nuclear weapons at the end of World War II and had experienced a meltdown at the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power plant in 2011.

When U.S. officials asked Japanese leaders why they were stockpiling plutonium they simply walked over to a world map and pointed to China and North Korea. Well, things are not getting any easier for Japan or South Korea for that matter. North Korean dictator Kim Jong Un recently celebrated the end of the Korean War by inviting senior military leaders from China and Russia to Pyongyang to view a military parade bristling with weapons. Kim was eager to display his newest and most powerful weapons including the Hwasong-17 and Hwasong-18 intercontinental ballistic missiles, which can target the U.S.

The United States-Japan Alliance has served as the cornerstone of peace, freedom, and stability throughout the Indo-Pacific region for over 60 years.  Currently, there are approximately 55,000 US military personnel stationed in Japan operating hundreds of modern aircraft, ships, and air defense systems that stand ready to respond to any aggressive actions by China against Taiwan or if North Korea attacks South Korea. So why then is Japan storing enriched plutonium? Japanese leaders believe the time is coming when America and its allies will not be able to deter or stop China from taking aggressive military action against Taiwan or from seizing the disputed Senkaku Islands that are administered by Japan but also claimed by China.

Citing China’s military build-up and aggressive behavior in the East and South China Seas, along with advances in North Korea’s nuclear weapons and ballistic missile programs, the Japanese are adopting a new National Security Strategy calling for a military build-up and “a counterstrike capability.” Japan’s counterstrike capability will probably consist of 400 Tomahawk Land Attack Cruise Missiles (TLAMs) armed with conventional warheads that the US just supplied and could be used to target North Korean, Chinese, and Russian forces threatening Japan. Most importantly, Japan is requesting greater operational control regarding how and when the TLAMs would be used during a crisis with China or North Korea.

It would only take the Japanese between 8 – 16 months to develop functional nuclear weapons. The Japanese have the plutonium (fissile material), the nuclear scientists capable of building a nuclear warhead (weaponizing), and a robust space program which could easily be converted to produce both shorter and longer-range missiles to deliver their nuclear weapons.

In the past, the U.S. was able to dissuade Japan from acquiring nuclear weapons by providing more advanced conventional weapons to counter China and North Korea including advanced aircraft, modern ballistic missile defenses, and by stationing U.S. aircraft carrier battle groups with ships and aircraft capable of delivering nuclear weapons should Japan ever be attacked. However, the Japanese are realists and see the military balance shifting in China’s favor, and that North Korea’s nuclear weapons program will only continue to expand – all ominous developments for Japan.

While a nuclear armed Japan may not be able to prevent China and North Korea from attacking Taiwan, South Korea, or the US, it would deter China from using its larger conventional forces to blockade or attack Japan and to force North Korea to stop firing missiles over the Japanese mainland. Initially, Japan could indigenously develop and deploy about 50 nuclear weapons on aircraft or ballistic missiles. Eventually, the Japanese would develop longer range missiles and deploy them on mobile launchers like our former Pershing II missiles that could be stored in bunkers, and quickly deployed or moved around the country during a crisis making them harder to detect and target. Additionally, the Japanese are also designing a new class of submarines that could fire TLAMs equipped with nuclear warheads or larger missiles resembling our Trident II submarine launched ballistic missiles.

Finally, Japan may ask the U.S. to transfer a small number of nuclear weapons and associated delivery systems that it would retain operational control over. This would enable Japan to acquire nuclear weapons faster and cheaper and would enable the U.S. to monitor Japan’s nuclear program. If Japan does acquire nuclear weapons to deter China and North Korea from hostile actions, we can expect South Korea to do the same. Unfortunately, we are now living in a multi-polar world with increasingly aggressive regional powers including China, Russia, and North Korea that all have nuclear weapons and Iran, which could soon have them.

This will eventually force Japan, South Korea, and Saudi Arabia to consider acquiring them, as well.

EDITOR’S NOTE: Steve Nystrom is a lifelong resident of Marquette and a Northern Michigan University Distinguished Alumni Award Recipient. He served for six years in the U.S. Army and spent over 25 years in the intelligence community.