Not since the settlement of the sit-down strike at General Motors in 1937 has a United Auto Workers president been more ambitious in his contract demands than is Shawn Fain in this year’s negotiations.

Walter Reuther won that earlier fight and launched the rise of the middle class. Fain, if he prevails, will return UAW members to their preeminent status among industrial workers, and bring a European-style view of labor to the United States, one that emphasizes quality of life over quality of work.

Fain, in his rookie season as head of the union representing 150,000 autoworkers, is swinging for the fences and beyond. He is seeking a pact the Detroit Three automakers say will cost them between $80 billion and $100 billion.

Here’s what Fain, eyeing the enormous profits posted by the Detroit Three, has put on the table:

≤ A 46% wage increase over the life of the five-year contract, pushing the current $65 an hour all-in cost of labor at domestic companies to more than $100 an hour. That compares to $55 an hour for their foreign competitors operating in the United States, and $45 an hour for Tesla’s U.S. workers.

≤ A 32-hour work week for 40-hour pay.

≤ Pensions for all workers, including new hires.

≤ The revival of fully-paid health care for retirees.

Fain has said he wants UAW members to work to live, not live to work, meaning they should have enough money to enjoy life, and the time off the job to do so.

But achieving that depends first on protecting jobs. Should Fain prevail in his demands, jobs will disappear.

General Motors, Ford Motor Co. and Stellantis (previously Chrysler) have all faced existential financial threats in the past. Their survival can be attributed in part to the concessions they were granted by the UAW.

Fain is right to seek to recover some of those give-backs now that the companies are healthy and making money. Detroit automakers reported $250 billion in profits over the past 10 years. But as we’ve learned in watching this industry over the decades, rich times are often short-lived. The government’s determination to force automakers to convert rapidly to an all-electric fleet comes with uncertainty about the technological ability to do so and the market’s willingness to accept EVs. To that point, Fain is serving his members well by emphasizing equal treatment for autoworkers in battery plants. Pay for workers in those facilities hover around $16 an hour. As work shifts from engine plants to battery plants, the average pay of autoworkers will plummet if that disparity is not addressed. Obviously, the final settlement will not include anywhere near a 46% pay hike, or a 20% shorter workweek. It’s customary for initial demands to be considerably inflated from what the union will actually accept.

This time, however, Fain has raised the expectations of his membership to extreme heights. It will be difficult for him to come down off that mountaintop without appearing to sell out the workers. That makes a strike more likely when the contract expires on Sept. 14. The UAW has an $825 million strike fund, and Fain will be tempted to use it to demonstrate he fought as hard as he could to get what he demanded.

A report last week from Lansing economist Patrick Anderson estimates a 10-day national strike could cost $5.6 billion in GDP. That’s very bad news for an economy that still hasn’t decided whether it’s going to soar or plunge.

–The Detroit News