MARQUETTE — The Marquette County Health Department has explained why the area is having another wave of COVID-19.

The “simple” answer, said MCHD Medical Director Bob Lorinser, is that omicron variants and reinfection community rates of cases are officially seven-fold higher than the lowest point before this last wave. This, he said, is probably under counted by two- to eight-fold since nearly all home testing is not part of the statistics.

Marquette is not having a proportional increase in severe cases, hospitalizations and deaths because of vaccinations and previous omicron infections, Lorinser said.

“This same answer can be given nationwide,” Lorinser said in a Wednesday statement.

According to a recent review of UP Health System – Marquette COVID positive admissions since May 9:

≤ Out of the total patients in the hospital with positive COVID tests, 41% are being admitted secondary to COVID and not incidentally positive.

≤ A total of 25% of patients admitted for COVID are up to date with vaccines, meaning they have at least one booster if eligible.

≤ No one admitted for COVID who requires care in the intensive care unit is boosted.

≤ The age range of those admitted for COVID is 42-95.

≤ The length of stay of those admitted for COVID is one to 19 days, with an average of six days.

Lorinser said individuals who are vaccinated, and especially those who are boosted, continue to have strong protection against severe disease, even from BA.2.12.1 and BA.2, which are known as the omicron variants — the two main variants circulating through the United States.

According to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, as of Dec. 20, omicron had been detected in every U.S. state and territory and continues to be the dominant variant in the country. The omicron variant spreads more easily than earlier variants of the virus, including the delta variant.

“These newer omicron subvariants are better than earlier strains at evading the immunity offered by vaccines and prior infections, meaning even people who caught the original omicron strain could be at risk of reinfection but in general are still protected from severe illness,” Lorinser said. “People who are up to date with COVID vaccines — meaning boosted, which I believe is a poor term for a three-dose vaccine — and previously infected with omicron are the most protected population.”

This group, he said, is followed by those vaccinated and not infected, and infected but not vaccinated. Individuals at highest risk are those neither vaccinated nor previously infected.

Lorinser said a local nursing home outbreak had 22 cases over the last two weeks, with nearly all the residents double-boosted.

“In the past before the vaccine, this would have resulted in around a 20 to 30 percent hospital admission rate and one to four deaths,” Lorinser said.

What’s being see now, he noted, are minor cold-like symptoms, with one patient with oxygen-dependent lung disease going to the emergency room for evaluation and then being allowed to return.

“Unfortunately, several patients on hospice care being before diagnosed with COVID are dying independent of COVID, so several deaths will be COVID-related,” he said. “Unfair and inaccurate data, if you ask me.”

Lorinser provided these suggestions:

≤ Get vaccinated with three doses.

≤ Assess your risk of getting reinfected and modify your behavior as desired, such as masking while indoors and out in public.

≤ If reinfected, assess your risk of developing severe infection and discuss with your medical provider the use of antiviral therapies.

Lorinser stressed that individuals cannot count on not getting seriously ill, hospitalized or dying if fully vaccinated, but their chances are probably five- to ten-fold lower if vaccinated.

He also addressed the question of a person’s “absolute risk” of getting seriously ill, hospitalized or dying.

Lorinser said he looked at multiple CDC databases for the week ending May 14, of cases, hospitalizations and deaths by age group and made comparisons.

The data sets, he said, don’t include important factors such as vaccination rates, previous infections and comorbidities.

Lorinser said the risk of being hospitalized is about 2% for individuals ages 50 to 64 and 12% for those ages 65 and up.

For the risk of death, it is .06% for individuals ages 50 to 64, .2% for those ages 65 to 74 and 1% for those ages 75 and older.

“Soi, if you take this as an average, your risk will increase or decrease depending on multiple factors as mentioned above,” Lorinser said. “For me, risk is real and deserves my attention. That is why I am boosted.”

Christie Mastric can be reached at 906-228-2500, ext. 250. Her email address is cbleck@miningjournal.net.