IRON MOUNTAIN — AccuWeather predicts temperatures will range about 2 to 3 degrees above normal this fall in the Upper Peninsula and Wisconsin as a warm autumn is expected across much of the U.S.

“The Pacific Northwest is the only region where AccuWeather’s team of long-range forecasters is predicting an early arrival of fall-like weather,” AccuWeather meteorologist Brian Lada said.

The National Weather Service sees a 45% chance of above-normal temperatures through October in the U.P. and a 20% chance of below normal.

By November, however, the Climate Prediction Center’s outlook turns neutral as temperatures may be driven by La Nina impacts. According to the CPC, there is a 66% chance of La Nina emerging this fall and a 74% chance of it persisting through winter.

La Nina, the periodic cooling of the Pacific Ocean near the equator, could mean a U.P. winter far different from the dry one of 2023-24.

The CPC’s precipitation forecast calls for a 45% chance of above-normal rain or snow this winter in the U.P.

Otherwise, the CPC’s precipitation outlook is neutral through November.

AccuWeather predicts a higher risk of severe Midwest weather this fall as waves of cold air begin to dive southward, clashing with entrenched warm and humid air.

The number of tornadoes in the U.S. this year has already surpassed the historical average for the entire year, Lada said.

There may be a higher risk of wildfires, too, if dry weather takes hold. Abnormally dry conditions are confirmed by the U.S.

Drought Monitor in the southern fringe of Dickinson and Menominee counties and in the western U.P. along Lake Superior. In Wisconsin, Marinette County is abnormally dry.

Rainfall at Iron Mountain-Kingsford measured 1.31 inches in July, which was more than 2 inches below average. According to observations at the Iron Mountain-Kingsford Wastewater Treatment Plant, it was first month of below-normal precipitation since February.

Temperatures at Iron Mountain-Kingsford averaged 68.2 degrees in July, which was 0.3 degrees below normal. The highest reading was 91 degrees reported July 15 and the lowest was 44 degrees July 1.

Sunday will mark the start of peak viewing for the Perseid meteor shower. According to The Old Farmer’s Almanac, watchers may see about one meteor a minute starting around midnight or 1 a.m. each night through dawn Tuesday.