The Niagara Main Street Makeover Committee was busy Monday decorating the city for the autumn season. Pumpkins, scarecrows and hay bales now can be seen throughout the Wisconsin community due to the work of volunteers — from left are Jeri Allen, Kathy Spade, Kathy Westrich, Joetta Bartolac, Deb Lindgren and Jacki Courney. (Karen Klenke photo)

IRON MOUNTAIN — Fall colors in the southern Upper Peninsula are expected to peak about three or four weeks from now as the National Weather Service predicts elevated chances for a dry fall and winter.

Below-normal precipitation is forecast in the Great Lakes region through April, due to the expected strengthening of El Nino, NWS forecaster Dan Collins said. El Nino conditions — a warming of the waters in the Eastern Pacific — are expected to strengthen and persist, according to the Climate Prediction Center.

The CPC has a neutral outlook on temperatures in the U.P. over the next two months, but the winter forecast calls for a 45% chance of above-average temperatures and just a 20% chance of below-average. That forecast is consistent with increasing impacts of a strengthening El Nino, Collins said.

The forecast for the southern U.P. and northeastern Wisconsin suggests a 40% chance of below-average precipitation this fall and winter and 25% chance of above-average.

“Below-normal precipitation is forecast across much of the northern tier of the continental U.S. from parts of the Pacific Northwest to the Great Lakes region from November to April,” Collins said.

The CPC “indicates greater than a 90 percent chance that El Nino will continue through winter,” he said.

The U.S. Drought Monitor shows abnormally dry conditions across the southern tier of the U.P. and moderate to severe drought to the west in Ontonagon and Gogebic counties. Almost all of Wisconsin has some level of drought, including exceptional drought in Vernon and Richland counties in the southwestern part of the state.

According to the SmokyMountains.com Fall Foliage Prediction Map, patchy and partial colors should start to pop about a week from now in the U.P. with near-peak colors in some areas within two weeks.

Fall arrives at 1:50 a.m. Sept. 23. The sun’s angle will continue to get lower in the sky over the Northern Hemisphere until the winter solstice — the shortest day of the year — on Dec. 21.

Temperatures in August at Iron Mountain-Kingsford averaged 65.5 degrees, which was about 1 degree below normal. The highest reading was 88 degrees on Aug. 2 and the lowest was 42 degrees on Aug. 26.

In early September, a Labor Day weekend heat wave set a record with an unofficial high of 92 degrees on Sept. 4, topping a mark of 91 degrees that had held since 1929. Highs in the upper 80s on Sept. 3 and 5 were slightly below record levels.

Rainfall at the Iron Mountain-Kingsford Wastewater Treatment Plant observation site measured 3.05 inches in August, which was 0.33 inches below normal. July rainfall was 1.7 inches above average, but both June and May were dry. June’s total was 2.8 inches below average while May’s total was 1.7 inches below the norm.