Demographics a concerning trend for NMU
Trending
MARQUETTE -- Statistics show enrollment at two-year colleges and four-year regional institutions is projected to decline in upcoming years, although positive enrollment trends are expected to continue into the early part of the next decade.
However, how should institutions of higher learning plan for the expected decline?
That was the subject of a faculty/staff forum held Wednesday at Reynolds Recital Hall at Northern Michigan University, with economist Nathan Grawe of Minnesota's Carleton College as the speaker.
Grawe is author of "Demographics and the Demand for Higher Education."
A decreasing fertility rate nationwide is a major culprit, he said, even though things might be looking brighter economically.
"There are a lot of signs of economic recovery but fertility hasn't recovered," Grawe said, noting a 3 percent fertility decline seen in 2017 relative to 2016.
And even if full fertility were to recover, people still would have to contend with the enrollment issue in the 2020s, he said.
Brent Graves, a professor in the NMU Department of Biology, said that between 2000 and 2018, NMU's enrollment of full-time equivalent students dropped by 20 percent, which he attributed largely to a decline in high school graduates.
"A lot of people at the university are really trying to get us to think about this, not ignore it, and plan for it," Graves said.
Grawe said precipitous drops in enrollment at colleges and universities will be seen in 2025 when the "birth curve" hits and the population changes, with the drops expected more acutely at two-year colleges than at elite universities.
So, how can NMU and other schools handle the trend?
A good recruitment team can help, Grawe said, and that can involve attracting more African-American and international students.
Grawe also stressed putting more attention on retention. If institutions could stop the "massive flow" of students leaving before they graduate, they wouldn't have to recruit as strongly.
He mentioned Rutgers University as an example of trying to retain students, with commuting Pell Grant students in particular having to retain their local retail jobs.
"When they get to finals in December and they go to their employer and say, 'I would like some additional time off because I have exams,' what does (that retailer) say in December?" Grawe said.
Working on campus, though, might provide the students a more forgiving environment, he said. So, Rutgers has earmarked positions on campus for certain students in a cohort program to ensure there's a work supervisor mentoring program.
Rutgers' thinking is if it can retain 70 additional students with 7,000 students per incoming class, that's 1 percent, Grawe said.
DePauw University also has gotten creative in trying to retain students.
"Retention has a lot to do with belonging," Grawe said. "Do I belong in this space?"
The Greencastle, Indiana, school has a hair salon on campus after hearing from African-Americans that there was no place to get a haircut in town.
"I think it's just a reminder that we need to be listening to our students and ask them, 'OK, what is it that is separating you from feeling like you belong here?' -- and then we need to take seriously what they say," Grawe said.
Marketability is another issue, he said, with one poll showing students are more interested in getting a good job or career after graduation than learning or acquiring knowledge.
"We can think about how we communicate the relevance of what we do in our classes and our programs so the students can see that relevance more directly," Grawe said.
Graves said what benefits one NMU department benefits all of them.
"We're all in this together," Graves said.
Christie Bleck can be reached at 906-228-2500, ext. 250.