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New administration facing challenge in Iranian relations

Mohey Mowafy, Journal op-ed contributor

In her brilliantly written book, “Black Wave: Saudi Arabia, Iran, and the Forty-Year Rivalry That Unraveled Culture, Religion, and Collective Memory in the Middle East,” Kim Ghattas, attributed the chaotic cauldron of/in the Middle East to the Iranian religion revolution on Nov. 4, 1979, when radical Iranian students took over the U.S. embassy in Tehran and held 52 Americans hostage for 444 days.

To this day Iran has been considered and treated by all American administrations with well-deserved antipathy. Former Secretary of State Mike Pompeo routinely referred to Iran’s “malign activities” and its attempts to spread its influence across the Middle East through terrorism, political subversion, and assistance to terrorists Shiite groups.

The role Iran currently plays in the Middle East according to our official documents, we have, is currently supporting some Suni groups. These activities are the reason why Iran is routinely (and deservedly) referred to as “the world’s foremost state sponsor of terrorism. As far as Iran is concerned, America is the great Satan.

For some, that is enough to keep Iran tightly controlled. Undoubtedly, Israel stands to lose the most with an ambitious Iran attempting to rule the region and defend Shi’ism. For us, reasonable stability and security of that region is an unquestionable must. The reasons for that go beyond securing oil flow in the gulf and the security of Israel. Some see no reason to even think that these 2 goals are vital anymore. I had discussed these reasons previously when Iran entered into an agreement with us and others (the ICPOAQ) to ultimately prevent Iran from developing a nuclear arson. No wonder, Israel was the strongest country to oppose such treaty.

Not long after that treaty (agreement) was signed, we had a change of presidents. What was accomplished with the treaty became irrelevant since (the previous administration) withdrew us from the group. Naturally, Israel met that with much joy, which is why Netanyahu had such a wide smile 24/7.

Enter a new administration under President Biden who saw the value of being in that treaty instead of out. There is probably no country in the world outside the United States that was more affected by the November election than Iran, wrote Ishaan Tharoor for the Al Monitor. It is not exactly a secret that President Biden’s victory was expected to mark a major shift in U.S. strategy toward the regime in Tehran. After weathering the Trump administration’s maximum pressure campaign and rounds of brutal sanctions, Tehran’s strategy at present was aimed at goading Biden quickly back into the deal.

Undoubtedly, going back into that treaty and working on improving it is essential. However, at this moment, I certainly recommend not to hurry. Iran has an election coming and it is possible that its new regime would have a different view which is hard to predict. But it cannot be worse.

The Biden administration should resist the temptation to be drawn into crisis diplomacy with the Iranians. True, we do not know how the election there will yield. The world may still have to deal with and respond to Iran ‘current regimen.

Tehran would be wrong to assume that the Biden administration would hesitate to maintain or even intensify pressure on Iran in coordination with European allies, of course. So far, Iranians have not buckled under such suffocating sanctions

This is what Said Shabnan (an Iranian 40 year old teacher) feels about this: “I do not think Biden’s presidency is going to make any important change in our lives, To be honest with you, the degree and depth of hopelessness and despair in Iran is so high that I am not optimistic about any action by any Iranian or American politician.”

As is the case in any discussion about foreign policies, there are certainly more than opinions. Dennis Ross, a former special assistant to President Barack Obama, and one who has an impeccable reputation both here and in the Middle East, finds waiting may not be a good option either since Iran had actually resumed enriching uranium after our withdrawal from the agreement to about 20% leaving it not very far from reaching its goal.

Editor’s note: Mohey Mowafy is a retired Northern Michigan University professor who resides in the Marquette area.

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