A partridge — a common local term for ruffed grouse — makes for a seasonal scene by foraging in a fruit tree, though not pear but a crabapple. The birds may need such food sources, as the National Weather Service outlook favors a snowier and colder winter than normal in the Upper Peninsula. (Iron Mountain Daily News photo)

IRON MOUNTAIN — A long-range forecast from the National Weather Service favors a snowier and colder winter than normal in the Upper Peninsula, although there’s room for doubt.

The Climate Prediction Center’s outlook through February calls for a 45% chance of above-average precipitation and 20% chance of below-average. Confidence is weaker on temperatures, with a 37% chance of below-normal and 30% chance of above.

This will be the third consecutive winter affected by La Nina, a periodic cooling of the central Pacific Ocean that especially influences weather in North America. Since 1900, a three-peat has only happened four times, most recently from 1998 through 2001.Elevated chances for below-normal temperatures are forecast for the northern U.S. region stretching from the Pacific Northwest to the Great Lakes, an outlook “consistent with typical La Nina impacts,” NWS forecaster Johnna Infanti said.

Above-normal temperatures are favored across the southern and eastern U.S., with the highest probabilities exceeding 50% in the eastern Gulf and South Atlantic states.

“The precipitation outlook favors above-normal precipitation across the northern tier of the U.S., with the largest probabilities in northern Idaho, western Montana and in the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley regions,” CPC meteorologist Nat Johnson said.

In contrast, the entire southern tier of the country has an elevated chance of drier-than-normal conditions. “Unfortunately, this means that we are not expecting any immediate drought relief in the Southwest and southern Great Plains, and drought may even expand into the Southeast,” Johnson said.After a wet November, the U.S. Drought Monitor shows no areas of concern across most of the Upper Peninsula and northeastern Wisconsin. Abnormally dry conditions are listed in western Gogebic County and there is moderate drought in Wisconsin’s Oneida County.

Locally, water-equivalent precipitation measured 3.16 inches for November at the Iron Mountain-Kingsford Wastewater Treatment Plant — well over an inch above normal. The snowfall total of 2.3 inches was 3 inches below average.Temperatures in November averaged 35.7 inches at Iron Mountain-Kingsford, more than 3 degrees above the norm. The highest temperature was 73 degrees Nov. 2 — a record for that date — and the lowest was 8 degrees Nov. 20. A high of 70 on Nov. 4 also set a record that date, as did a high of 60 on Nov. 27.With November qualifying as “very warm” in the U.P., it could signal a winter pattern at odds with the NWS’s La Nina-based prediction. Of the 27 very warm Novembers in the U.P. over the past 100 years, only once — in 1981-82 — has a cold winter followed, according to meteorologist Karl Bohnak.

Winter will officially arrive at 3:38 p.m. Dec. 21, the shortest day and longest night of the year in terms of daylight in the Northern Hemisphere.