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Packers could have another home game

Originally I wanted to be up to the minute and address the announcement that the St. Louis Rams and maybe San Diego Chargers or Oakland Raiders will move to Los Angeles.

But you don’t want to hear any more about that do you? I know I don’t after watching unending coverage of it the past two days.

So let’s talk about the Green Bay Packers instead. Specifically their chances to host the NFC Championship in 10 days.

I thought that would get your attention.

All we need for that game to be played at Lambeau Field – at 6:40 p.m. EST on Sunday, Jan. 24 – is to have the No. 6 seeded Seattle Seahawks win at No. 1 Carolina, and the No. 5 Packers take out No. 2 Arizona this weekend.

I see the toughest part of that task being in the Packers’ laps.

I checked the one website I could find easily that listed odds for this weekend’s games as percentages rather than point spreads.

It was www.footballoutsiders.com, which claims to play out each game 25,000 times.

Dredging up my collegiate statistics and probability course from eons ago, it looks like all I have to do is multiply the percentage of Seattle winning and the percentage of Green Bay winning this weekend to come up with the right number.

Just to check, I wrote down the four possibilities for the NFC Championship, GB vs. Seattle, GB vs. Carolina, Arizona vs. Seattle and Arizona vs. Carolina, and voila – they added up to exactly 1.00. (which is 100 percent).

This website says the Packers have a 30.4 percent chance of winning (not quite 1 in 3) and Seattle 49.3 percent (almost 50-50).

Multiplying those two together gave me .1499, or almost exactly a 15 percent chance of a Seattle-Green Bay NFC championship game, the only way it would be held at Lambeau. That also translates to between a 1-in-6 and 1-in-7 chance.

So if you have to put 10 percent down to hold a ticket for that game, it might be worth it. Remember, though, it’s your money, not mine.

Now onto this week’s picks, listed with seedings, season records, conference, game time and network televising it:

No. 5 Kansas City (12-5) at No. 2 New England (12-4), AFC, 4:30 p.m. Saturday, CBS – As far as I’m concerned, THIS is the AFC Championship game. Unless a bad injury happens, I plan to pick the winner of this game to get to the Super Bowl next week, too.

This is an odd situation with New England being the big question mark, based on so many injured players being in flux.

One website I saw said the Chiefs are suffering more from injuries than the Patriots, with KC top receiver Jeremy Maclin real iffy, whereas New England should get back their No. 1 pass catcher, Julian Edelman.

Once the playoffs were set, I discounted the New England loss to the New York Jets to end the regular season.

Why? I realized that Bill Belichick rested a lot of guys knowing the furthest his team could slip was to the No. 2 seed, still guaranteeing a bye last week and home field this week.

Go with the tried, true and tested. Patriots, 27-21.

No. 5 Green Bay (11-6) at No. 2 Arizona (13-3), NFC, 8:15 p.m. Saturday, NBC – Green Bay has one thing going for it: the 30-point blowout loss to Arizona in Week 16. How can the Cardinals have as much a sense of urgency as the Pack?

But between GB receiver Davante Adams’ injury, a short week and the fact the Arizona regular-season game didn’t look like that much of an anomaly compared to the rest of the team’s late-season swoon, I have to take the Cardinals, 27-16.

No. 6 Seattle (11-6) at No. 1 Carolina (15-1), NFC, 1 p.m. Sunday, Fox – The most intriguing game this weekend.

Discount Carolina’s 27-23 win in Week 6; this was a different Seattle team that was 2-4 at the time.

The Panthers haven’t faced a playoff team since the Redskins on Nov. 22, and Washington didn’t look playoff-bound then.

The good thing? Carolina has played three home games since Nov. 22 and outscored their opponents 120-26 in them.

Even though last week’s Seattle game was played in brutal cold, both teams had to deal with it and the Seahawks got as lucky as any team ever will when the Vikings missed a game-winning 27-yard field goal at the end.

A hunch that being at home will mean more than everyone thinks, Carolina, 30-24.

No. 6 Pittsburgh (11-6) at No. 1 Denver (12-4), AFC, 4:30 p.m. Sunday, CBS – I don’t like this matchup for Pittsburgh.

One, the Steelers won their Week 14 matchup with Denver, 34-27; two, Pittsburgh’s Ben Roethlisberger is significantly hurt and receiver Antonio Brown is likely out; and three, Denver’s Peyton Manning is coming off about two months rest other than the half a quarter he played against San Diego two weeks ago.

Manning may not look any good if he has to play two weeks in a row, but that will be a worry if and when the Broncos get to the AFC Championship game.

For now, Broncos, 31-21.

Last week and total in playoffs – 3-1, 75 percent.

Steve Brownlee can be reached at 906-228-2500, ext. 252. His email address is sbrownlee@miningjournal.net.

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