View from the Corner Desk

Rankings and the wisdom of crowds

On one hand, I think they're sorta fun to do as a mental exercise, a comparison tool, I guess. Personally, I try not to take them too seriously. Rankings don't win games, teams do. But I still enjoy them, both sharing and seeing what other think.

On the other hand, some people read too much into them. If their team happens to be ranked lower than they feel it should be (oftentimes, that's No. 1) they don't just criticize the rankings themselves, they either see some sort of conspiracy or think those people are stupid for not seeing it the way they do.

And look, I'm as guilty as the next person when I look at college football rankings and say "Who can rank Ohio State and its weak schedule No. 1?" Apparently 50 of 65 AP voters and 46 of 60 coaches in the USA Today poll. But to me, college sports, and pro sports especially, is a whole different animal.

Sometimes, I question the wisdom of a) high school polls, period, and b) media polls.

I question prep polls because I believe high school sports is an extracurricular activity, a learning tool. Good coaches really do impart lifelong lessons. I think rankings can only get in the way. As well, prep sports is more local, more personal. Everyone knows where their team is ranked in the U.P., whether parents or coaches or players. But in college or the pros, a lot of folks say they don't even bother reading the sports pages. So part of me says we're better off leaving rankings to higher levels of athletics.

On point B, I'm not sure if the media should really be making itself part of the story by doing rankings. Secondly, doesn't that give members of the media rooting interest? Human nature I guess, everyone wants to be right.

And finally, part of me wonders if an Upper Peninsula polls make little sense. The U.P. is just too big, with too many schools that never meet and with too many teams voting members will never see, to make for an "accurate" poll. And then there's the issue with school sizes ranging hugely in the Class ABC polls.

So there, I've just insulted ranking high school teams for much of this blog post, and yet I still do it (and will do it on this blog in the future). Does that make me a hypocrite? Possibly. But I still like polls. Why?

(Poli sci/econ major alert!!)

Because of something called the wisdom of crowds. It's what makes markets work, whether the stock market or a futures market. It's remarkably accurate. After the terrorist attacks in 2001, the U.S. government first tried setting up a futures market to help "guess" when or where the next attack might be, as a way to gather information. (Others found this in bad taste and it was quickly ended).

Basically, a bunch of people, using their best information and different methodologies, will come up with a reasonably accurate guess of what's going to happen in the future. And a ranking is essentially a market. Rather than investing money, we're investing 5 points for first place to 1 point for fifth place (in the case of the UPSSA poll).

I may decide ranking teams should be done based on which team would beat which team, using past team matchups, individual player matchups, or a dice roll. Doesn't matter. It's my method and I think it is reasonably useful. Maybe somebody else votes based only on what has already happened. Team A beat Team B. Team B beat Team C. So they rank them ABC, assuming Team A would also beat Team C. Maybe somebody else just looks at the records.

When you get a bunch of us together, bringing our methods, it should be a reasonably accurate ranking. It might resemble whichever method is most popular, but with a large enough poll with varied enough methods, you should get some nice results. Will they be perfect? Of course not. Nothing can be a perfect predictor for sports, because sports are ultimately unpredictable.

So, anyway, to me, it's fun. To you, it should be fun. Please don't take polls too seriously.

As for my method of ranking, I try to weight it about halfway by who I think would beat whom in the future, and halfway to historical results. Just as an example, this year, Escanaba's boys beat Houghton's. But since then, Escanaba has lost a starter to a severely broken leg. Could Esky beat them again in the future? That question is hard to answer. I'd rank Esky above Houghton, but quite tentatively, while others would feel perfectly secure based on the 68-59 game earlier this year.

That's how I'll be doing my personal Corner Desk Ranking in the future. And on the blog, I don't expect to rank Class D because we only have two D schools in our readership, so I'm really not familiar enough to have an opinion. As for the UPSSA rankings (now done by 6 regional votes based on input from all the media in the region, and The Mining Journal is apparently the voter for this area), we'll just have to rely on the wisdom of crowds. In that case, I will cede the crowd knows better than me.

Share:

Facebook  MySpace  Digg  Stumble    Mixx  Fark  del.icio.us   LiveSpaces

 

Member Comments

View Comments: | Post a comment

No comments posted for this article.

You must first login before you can comment.

Existing Member Login
Not a Member?	Create a Member Account
*Your email address:		<--Email REQUIRED!
*Password:	Forgot Password?	<--Password REQUIRED!
	Remember my email address.